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Playoff Odds
Season 2026 Projections
5000 simulations · 806 games played · 1637 remaining · Updated 2026-05-25
Team Record Proj W Proj L Range Playoff Win Div WC DS CS WS Champ
ATL 36-18 103 59 97-110 99.9% 99.7% <1% 97.9% 70.4% 43.2% 24.4%
LAD 33-20 100 62 93-106 99.7% 87.7% 11.9% 91.9% 61.8% 30.8% 16.3%
TB 34-16 99 63 92-106 99.9% 81.9% 18.0% 97.2% 66.4% 40.4% 22.0%
NYY 31-22 93 69 86-99 98.8% 17.9% 80.8% 84.5% 51.3% 26.1% 13.4%
MIL 30-20 91 71 85-98 90.4% 68.6% 21.8% 57.7% 21.3% 8.5% 3.8%
CLE 32-23 91 71 84-97 97.8% 89.0% 8.8% 77.1% 36.7% 16.5% 7.3%
SD 31-21 91 71 84-97 85.3% 10.0% 75.3% 52.7% 19.8% 7.9% 3.3%
AZ 28-24 86 76 79-93 55.4% 2.2% 53.2% 26.9% 8.2% 3.1% 1.2%
STL 29-22 85 77 78-92 52.8% 15.0% 37.8% 24.7% 6.8% 2.4% <1%
CHC 29-24 85 77 78-91 49.0% 12.9% 36.1% 22.0% 5.7% 2.1% <1%
ATH 27-26 83 79 77-90 75.1% 64.1% 11.0% 40.7% 14.4% 5.5% 2.1%
PHI 26-27 82 80 75-89 29.6% <1% 29.4% 12.6% 3.7% 1.4% <1%
CWS 26-26 81 81 74-87 52.6% 7.7% 45.0% 24.5% 7.7% 3.2% 1.1%
TOR 25-28 80 82 73-86 47.0% <1% 46.9% 22.2% 7.7% 3.5% 1.3%
PIT 27-26 79 83 72-86 12.4% 1.8% 10.6% 4.7% <1% <1% <1%
WSH 27-27 78 84 72-85 12.0% <1% 12.0% 4.1% <1% <1% <1%
MIN 26-27 78 84 72-85 31.6% 3.0% 28.6% 13.3% 3.9% 1.2% <1%
CIN 27-25 78 84 71-85 10.7% 1.7% 9.0% 4.0% <1% <1% <1%
TEX 24-28 78 84 71-84 28.4% 14.9% 13.5% 12.4% 4.0% 1.3% <1%
SEA 25-29 77 85 70-83 23.5% 11.7% 11.8% 9.8% 2.5% <1% <1%
HOU 23-31 76 86 69-82 17.1% 7.8% 9.2% 7.4% 2.3% <1% <1%
BOS 22-30 74 88 67-80 9.5% <1% 9.5% 3.8% 1.1% <1% <1%
SF 22-31 73 89 66-79 1.0% <1% 1.0% <1% <1% <1% <1%
NYM 22-31 73 89 66-79 1.2% <1% 1.2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
BAL 23-30 73 89 66-79 7.3% <1% 7.3% 2.8% <1% <1% <1%
KC 22-31 72 90 65-79 6.0% <1% 5.7% 2.3% <1% <1% <1%
MIA 25-29 72 90 65-78 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
LAA 20-34 71 91 64-77 3.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.1% <1% <1% <1%
DET 21-33 70 92 63-76 2.4% <1% 2.4% <1% <1% <1% <1%
COL 20-34 62 100 55-68 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
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