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Playoff Odds
Season 2026 Projections
5000 simulations · 1482 games played · 971 remaining · Updated 2026-07-18
Team Record Proj W Proj L Range Playoff Win Div WC DS CS WS Champ
LAD 62-36 102 60 97-107 100.0% 99.9% <1% 97.6% 68.6% 45.6% 27.5%
MIL 60-37 98 64 93-103 99.9% 95.6% 4.3% 89.0% 52.2% 21.5% 10.8%
ATL 56-40 94 68 89-99 99.1% 82.8% 16.3% 74.2% 37.4% 15.4% 8.4%
TB 56-40 92 70 87-97 99.3% 64.5% 34.8% 90.6% 56.1% 31.1% 14.2%
NYY 54-43 90 72 85-95 98.1% 34.1% 64.0% 84.2% 52.0% 28.7% 14.5%
PHI 54-44 89 73 83-94 85.2% 15.9% 69.3% 48.1% 16.4% 7.4% 3.5%
CHC 54-43 88 74 83-93 77.2% 3.7% 73.5% 37.4% 11.7% 5.4% 2.4%
CLE 51-46 86 76 81-91 83.2% 44.5% 38.7% 53.7% 22.8% 10.0% 4.2%
CWS 51-45 85 77 80-91 81.7% 47.6% 34.1% 54.4% 25.1% 11.2% 4.8%
STL 51-45 84 78 79-89 41.4% <1% 40.8% 16.4% 4.4% 1.5% <1%
MIA 52-46 83 79 78-88 31.5% 1.2% 30.3% 13.0% 3.1% 1.0% <1%
AZ 49-48 83 79 78-88 25.6% <1% 25.5% 10.0% 2.7% 1.0% <1%
TEX 49-48 82 80 77-87 63.8% 58.1% 5.7% 32.7% 12.5% 5.7% 2.7%
BOS 48-48 82 80 77-87 53.4% 1.3% 52.1% 27.9% 11.2% 5.3% 2.2%
PIT 50-47 82 80 77-87 18.0% <1% 17.8% 6.4% 1.4% <1% <1%
MIN 49-49 81 81 75-86 32.9% 6.5% 26.3% 16.5% 6.1% 2.4% <1%
SD 48-49 80 82 75-86 10.3% <1% 10.3% 4.0% 1.3% <1% <1%
WSH 49-49 80 82 75-85 11.5% <1% 11.4% 3.8% <1% <1% <1%
SEA 48-50 79 83 74-85 31.6% 23.9% 7.7% 14.6% 5.6% 2.1% <1%
HOU 47-52 79 83 74-84 25.3% 17.7% 7.7% 12.0% 4.4% 1.8% <1%
BAL 47-51 77 85 72-82 12.2% <1% 12.1% 5.4% 1.6% <1% <1%
DET 45-52 77 85 72-82 8.1% 1.3% 6.8% 3.5% 1.2% <1% <1%
TOR 45-52 77 85 71-82 9.7% <1% 9.6% 4.4% 1.5% <1% <1%
CIN 44-52 73 89 67-78 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
SF 42-55 72 90 67-77 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
ATH 41-56 71 91 66-76 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
NYM 41-57 69 93 64-74 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
KC 39-59 67 95 62-72 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
LAA 38-60 67 95 62-72 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
COL 39-60 64 98 59-69 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
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